Will "Increasing returns to effort are common" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
One-OffAITechSociety & Culture3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85.3%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 3, 26, 11:03 PM UTCFeb 1, 27, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Increasing returns to effort are common is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
