Will the origin of the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak be revealed to be from rats on the ship itself?
Latin AmericaHealth & MedicineOne-OffScience2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.8%
Forecasters
90
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleMay 14, 26, 6:59 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 7:56 PM UTC
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KalshiRules
Resolves YES if by the end of the year, it appears that at least a loose consensus is that the origin was from contamination (very likely to be rats?) on the actual cruise ship, rather than from someone who brought it onto the ship and then spread it.
- It appears like there is substantial uncertainty around the origins, despite early theories that the first case on the ship brought it from their extensive travels through the South American continent (and perhaps a birding excursion).
- It looks like local countries (Argentina and Chile) are already finger-pointing: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/14/world/americas/hantavirus-cruise-ship-argentina.html
- I will not bet on this market, so as to remain objective.
- I will resolve at END OF 2026! I could resolve to PROB if there's mixed sentiment around the origins, but hope to either resolve to 0 or 100 in the direction of the consensus.
- I will try to keep my personal opinions as to the origins out of this, so even if I think that this is likely, I could resolve NO if it appears that most rational observers would not believe this.