Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 59.4%
Forecasters
7
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleAug 5, 25, 4:15 PM UTCJan 6, 29, 5:08 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Peak US National Debt Under Trump Administration
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Manifold MarketsWho will leave their role in the Trump administration in 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolves Yes if the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 is still publishing data when Donald Trump leaves office, No otherwise.
- At the time when Trump leaves office, I will check https://disc.gsfc.nasa.gov/datasets/OCO2_L2_Fwd_FP_11.2/summary?keywords=oco2%20v11.2 for recently published data, or look at another URL if that one is down and commenters suggest that the observatory is still publishing data at a different URL.
- If the OCO2 crashes into the atmosphere, becoming an incandescent trail of plasma and debris, this market may resolve early.
- https://www.npr.org/2025/08/04/nx-s1-5453731/nasa-carbon-dioxide-satellite-mission-threatened
Open markets
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $808.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
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- $701M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $342.3K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 survive the Trump administration??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 59% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 survive the Trump administration? resolve?
- Will the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 survive the Trump administration? is scheduled to resolve on January 6, 2029.
- How is Will the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 survive the Trump administration? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves Yes if the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 is still publishing data when Donald Trump leaves office, No otherwise.