Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.8%
Forecasters
142
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 22 hours ago
StaleMay 24, 23, 1:02 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
"Strong" means that the evidence is reported as credible by mainstream press and/or is accepted by at least a large minority of relevant scientists (e.g. 1 in 3).
- "Evidence" can be direct (e.g. the physical recovery of alien bacteria from Mars) or indirect (e.g. telescopic observations of technosignatures).
- Evidence can also be of the past existence of aliens, such as fossils.
- "Aliens" are defined liberally.
- This market counts anything that is arguably non-earth-originating life as aliens.
- This includes both intelligent and non-intelligent beings, non-carbon-based biology, and things, such as viruses, for which there is controversy over their status as life.
