Current community forecast
Raise by >5% 64.2%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
22
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 23 hours ago
StaleApr 1, 24, 12:04 AM UTCJan 2, 00, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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LimitlessRules
Measured with the 10-yr real interest rate as calculated by the St-Louis Fed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y
- Baseline: Average of the 10-yr real interest rate.
- I will average the rate over the year preceding the release of Strong AI.
- I will then average the same rate, starting one year after the release of said strong AI.
- This resolves at T + 2 yr after the release of strong AI.
- Will extend indefinitely.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will strong AI raise or lower real interest rates??
- Manifold Markets prices Raise by >5% at 64% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will strong AI raise or lower real interest rates? resolve?
- Will strong AI raise or lower real interest rates? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2100.
- How is Will strong AI raise or lower real interest rates? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Measured with the 10-yr real interest rate as calculated by the St-Louis Fed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y
