Current community forecast
Yes 72.8%
Forecasters
2
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleSep 12, 26, 8:12 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will AI progress slow down before July 2027 due to an agreement to 'pace the frontier'?
Manifold MarketsTwo+ of OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepMind adopt new MonitorBench for monitor-aware evasion by '27?
Manifold MarketsAny American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google acquire or take a controlling stake in a broker-dealer by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to another Millennium Prize?
PolymarketOpenAI vs. Anthropic: First to announce recursive self-improvement?
PolymarketRules
Resolves yes if either company takes actions that clearly and intentionally slow down frontier model capability improvement.
- Both Dario and Sam Altman have stated they think this is a good idea.
