PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
OpenAI · —
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Stored reference
OpenAI 59%
OpenAI 59%Market quality
42 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
$577.7
Low liquidityOpen interest
$289.7
Bid / Ask
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OpenAISpread
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Comments
1
7d Change
-2.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Sep 9, 26, 7:42 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Top holders
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Market depth · OpenAI
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
OpenAI or Anthropic announces recursive self-improvement by which date?
PolymarketWill OpenAI or Anthropic announce recursive self-improvement?
KalshiTwo+ of OpenAI, Anthropic, or DeepMind adopt new MonitorBench for monitor-aware evasion by '27?
Manifold MarketsAny American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google acquire or take a controlling stake in a broker-dealer by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsAt the end of 2027 will both OpenAI and Anthropic be public companies?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI, or an official representative of OpenAI, announces that OpenAI has solved a qualifying Millennium Prize Problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET before Anthropic does so.
- This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic, or an official representative of Anthropic, announces that Anthropic has solved a qualifying Millennium Prize Problem by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET before OpenAI does so.
- If neither company makes a qualifying announcement by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or if both make qualifying announcements on the same calendar day, this market will resolve 50-50.
- A qualifying announcement by any other company does not end the race or affect resolution.
- The qualifying problems are the Riemann Hypothesis, P versus NP, the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem, the Hodge Conjecture, and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (https://www.claymath.org/millennium-problems/).
- Announcements concerning the Navier-Stokes existence and smoothness problem will not qualify.