Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.4%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleSep 12, 26, 3:14 PM UTCJun 30, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolves according to whether something like the scenario Dario describes here has come to pass, at least through mid-2027, in a way that seems like it has counter-factually decreased AI capabilities at that time relative to if it hadn't happened.
- I expect only Anthropic and OpenAI need to agree to this.
- Still resolves YES if the agreement is not voluntary (e.g. the government imposes this upon the labs)
- Resolves by a poll of Manifold users created within a week of the resolution time.
- The poll will have an "I don't know" option that causes the market to resolve N/A
- https://darioamodei.com/post/we-must-pace-the-frontier#why-pace-