What are the current odds for Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 72% as of September 17, 2026.

Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?

One-OffPolitics7y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 71.9%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 16 hours ago

Stale

May 24, 23, 6:03 PM UTCDec 31, 33, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Rules

Update 2026-01-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution criteria: The market resolves YES if you can change gender on a piece of ID that is allowed to be used as actual identification, without requiring Official Lengthy Approval from a doctor, in the year 2033.

New Zealand currently has this system (since 2012)
The market would resolve YES if the law stays the same until 2033

Report a data issue with this market

Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?

One-OffPolitics7y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 71.9%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 16 hours ago

Stale

May 24, 23, 6:03 PM UTCDec 31, 33, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

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Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

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Which party will win the U.S. House?

Kalshi

Rules

New Zealand currently has this system (since 2012)
The market would resolve YES if the law stays the same until 2033

Report a data issue with this market

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033??: Manifold Markets prices Yes at 72% as of September 17, 2026.
When does Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? resolve?: Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2033.
How is Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Update 2026-01-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution criteria: The market resolves YES if you can change gender on a piece of ID that is allowed to be used as actual identification, without requiring Official Lengthy Approval from a doctor, in the year 2033.

Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?

Will New Zealand legally recognise gender by self-identification in 2033?

Frequently asked questions

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