Will migrant boats from France to the UK be consistently sent back to France for at least a month before 2030?
PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsElection3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 51%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 3, 25, 2:17 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
The UK and France have multiple bilateral agreements aimed at reducing Channel crossings, including increased patrols, surveillance technology, and joint operations.
- However, there is currently no formal mechanism for systematically returning migrant boats to France.
- French vessels have sometimes been observed escorting boats into UK waters, and migrants are often brought to the UK by Border Force or Coastguard after being encountered in the Channel.
- Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve YES if:
- For a continuous period of at least 30 days before 2030
