Will Michigan HB 4938 (“Anticorruption of Public Morals Act”) become law with its VPN ban intact by the end of 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS Politics3mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 90.5%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleNov 23, 25, 11:09 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Michigan House Bill 4938, the “Anticorruption of Public Morals Act,” was introduced on September 11, 2025 in the 103rd Michigan Legislature.
- As written, it would criminalize broad categories of online sexual content and require internet service providers to deploy content filters and to detect and block “circumvention tools,” explicitly including virtual private networks (VPNs), proxy servers, and encrypted tunneling methods.
- It would also ban the sale or promotion of such tools when used to access prohibited material.
- This market asks whether some version of HB 4938 will be enacted into Michigan law by the end of the current 2025–2026 legislative term, with its core VPN / circumvention-tool ban still substantively in place.
- Resolution criteria
- Resolve YES if, on or before 11:59 pm Eastern time on December 31, 2026, all of the following are true:
