What are the current odds for Will Michelle and Barack Obama separate/ divorce by eoy 2029??

Manifold Markets prices No at 91.5% as of October 24, 2026.

Paper trade this

Will Michelle and Barack Obama separate/ divorce by eoy 2029?

One-OffUS Politics Politics3y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Data quality warningSource data degraded

Data as of Oct 24, 2026, 7:05 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

No 91.5%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 7 hours ago

Stale

Jan 1, 26, 6:45 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 7:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

This market resolves YES if Barack and Michelle Obama publicly announce a separation or divorce through official channels (their social media, press statements, or legal filings) through 2029.

Resolution will be based on major news outlet coverage and official statements.
Sources for resolution:
Official Obama social media accounts
Major news outlets like CNN, Reuters, AP
Court records if publicly available

Report a data issue with this market

Will Michelle and Barack Obama separate/ divorce by eoy 2029?

Will Michelle and Barack Obama separate/ divorce by eoy 2029?

Open markets

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Texas Senate winner?

Fed Decision in October?

NATO x Russia military clash by which date?

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

Which party will win the U.S. House?

Frequently asked questions

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Open markets

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Texas Senate winner?

Fed Decision in October?

NATO x Russia military clash by which date?

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

Which party will win the U.S. House?