Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 7:45 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Yes 75.4%
Forecasters
37
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJul 1, 25, 2:59 PM UTCNov 6, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiWhich party will win the House in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolves N/A if Mamdani loses this year.
- Resolves to the next election.