Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 89.8%
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60
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 4 hours ago
StaleAug 18, 23, 7:32 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Lucy Letby be exonerated?
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KalshiRules
Lucy Letby is a neonatal nurse who was convicted of murder based on a cluster of deaths at the neonatal ward of Countess of Chester Hospital.
- Some sources have recently argued that the science and statistics used to support that conviction may have been shoddy: https://rexvlucyletby2023.com/ https://gill1109.com/2023/05/24/the-lucy-letby-case/
- Will Lucy Letby be exonerated by a court? This question resolved YES if she is released from prison either because a court of jurisdiction has determined her innocent (under any legal standard), or because a court has determined that she can't be held due to flaws in her trial or the evidence presented at her trial, and no new trial is expected to take place.
- This question resolves NO if that has not occurred by Jan 1, 2027.
- (If significant legal proceedings are in progress on that date, this will be extended until they are concluded).
- (For purposes of this question, if a court determines that she is not guilty of intentional murder, but substitutes a lesser charge involving negligence, manslaughter, or medical practice, this does count as exoneration.)