Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 79.1%
Forecasters
59
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleAug 18, 23, 7:32 PM UTCJan 2, 27, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Lucy Letby be exonerated?
Manifold MarketsDid Lucy Letby murder any infants? (media consensus)
Manifold MarketsWill the CCRC refer Lucy Letby's case to the Court of Appeal?
Manifold MarketsTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
PolymarketTrump out as President before 2027?
PolymarketIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
PolymarketRules
Lucy Letby is a neonatal nurse who was convicted of murder based on a cluster of deaths at the neonatal ward of Countess of Chester Hospital.
- Some sources have recently argued that the science and statistics used to support that conviction may have been shoddy: https://rexvlucyletby2023.com/ https://gill1109.com/2023/05/24/the-lucy-letby-case/
- Will Lucy Letby be exonerated by a court? This question resolved YES if she is released from prison either because a court of jurisdiction has determined her innocent (under any legal standard), or because a court has determined that she can't be held due to flaws in her trial or the evidence presented at her trial, and no new trial is expected to take place.
- This question resolves NO if that has not occurred by Jan 1, 2027.
- (If significant legal proceedings are in progress on that date, this will be extended until they are concluded).
- (For purposes of this question, if a court determines that she is not guilty of intentional murder, but substitutes a lesser charge involving negligence, manslaughter, or medical practice, this does count as exoneration.)
Open markets
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+5.0pt70.3%
- Yes-5.0pt29.7%
- Total Vol
- $410.6K
- 24h Vol
- $7K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $6.8K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt28%
- October 31+1.0pt14%
- September 30-1.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-1.0pt21%
- 2026+0.2pt5%
- Total Vol
- $581.6K
- 24h Vol
- $5.5K
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+0.5pt42.6%
- 60++2.0pt38.6%
- 20–40+2.6pt10.9%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIWho will be arrested in 2026?
- John Brennan-2.0pt22%
- Mahmoud Khalil17%
- Anthony Fauci13%
+21 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
- $2.7K
- Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Hasan Piker arrested in 2026?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Who will be arrested before 2027?
- Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
- Jessica Tisch out as New York City Police Commissioner by which date?
- Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Lucy Letby be exonerated??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 79% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Lucy Letby be exonerated? resolve?
- Will Lucy Letby be exonerated? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Will Lucy Letby be exonerated? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Lucy Letby is a neonatal nurse who was convicted of murder based on a cluster of deaths at the neonatal ward of Countess of Chester Hospital.