Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 70.4%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMay 19, 24, 9:32 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Lucy Letby be exonerated?
Manifold MarketsWill the CCRC refer Lucy Letby's case to the Court of Appeal?
Manifold MarketsWill Lucy Letby be exonerated?
Manifold MarketsLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
PolymarketChud the Builder convicted of attempted murder?
PolymarketTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve YES if Letby intentionally murdered any infants and NO if not.
- The market will stay open until a media consensus is reached, and be conservative about resolution.
- It may be a long time before it resolves.
- Resolution is delegated to Manifold (the mods if there's no newer system) in the event if it is disputed or not obvious.
Open markets
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+5.0pt70.3%
- Yes-5.0pt29.7%
- Total Vol
- $410.6K
- 24h Vol
- $7K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $6.8K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+0.5pt28%
- October 31+1.0pt14%
- September 30-1.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-1.0pt21%
- 2026+0.2pt5%
- Total Vol
- $581.6K
- 24h Vol
- $5.5K
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+0.5pt42.6%
- 60++2.0pt38.6%
- 20–40+2.6pt10.9%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIWho will be arrested in 2026?
- John Brennan-2.0pt22%
- Mahmoud Khalil17%
- Anthony Fauci13%
+21 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
- $2.7K
- Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Hasan Piker arrested in 2026?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Who will be arrested before 2027?
- Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
- Jessica Tisch out as New York City Police Commissioner by which date?
- Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Did Lucy Letby murder any infants? (media consensus)?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 70% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Did Lucy Letby murder any infants? (media consensus) resolve?
- Did Lucy Letby murder any infants? (media consensus) is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is Did Lucy Letby murder any infants? (media consensus) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve YES if Letby intentionally murdered any infants and NO if not.