Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (95%)
Resolved: Oct 12, 2026, 2:18 PM
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 13, 2026, 12:28 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This market resolves YES if the initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for June 2026 reports that core PCE inflation was 0.3% or higher month-over-month.
- Use the PCE price index excluding food and energy in the first BEA Personal Income and Outlays release covering June 2026, and use the percent change from the preceding month.
- Resolve NO if the initial June 2026 core PCE price-index month-over-month change is 0.2% or lower, zero, or negative.
- Do not use headline PCE, current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, CPI, PPI, annualized rates, year-over-year rates, personal income, disposable personal income, personal outlays, saving rate, or later revisions unless BEA corrects the initial June 2026 release before resolution.
- If the June 2026 Personal Income and Outlays release is delayed, wait for the first BEA release containing the June 2026 core PCE price-index month-over-month percent change unless there is no such release by August 6, 2026, in which case resolve N/A. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"april_2026_core_pce_price_index_mom": 0.2, "april_2026_core_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.3, "april_2026_pce_price_index_mom": 0.4, "april_2026_pce_price_index_yoy": 3.8, "next_release_at_creation": "Personal Income and Outlays, May 2026 scheduled for 2026-06-25 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "release": "Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026", "release_date": "2026-05-28"}, "metric": "Core PCE price index percent change from May 2026 to June 2026", "related_non_duplicates": ["May 2026 headline/core PCE inflation markets are prior-reference-month markets.", "June 2026 headline CPI-U, core CPI-U, PPI, import/export prices, and AHE markets are different statistical releases.", "Current-dollar PCE spending, real PCE, personal income, DPI, saving-rate, and outlays markets are not PCE price-index duplicates.", "Headline PCE price-index markets are not duplicates because this market excludes food and energy."], "release_schedule": "BEA release schedule lists Personal Income and Outlays, June 2026 for 2026-07-30 at 08:30 AM Eastern.", "resolver_surface": "Initial BEA Personal Income and Outlays release for June 2026", "series": "PCE price index excluding food and energy", "threshold": "+0.3% month-over-month or higher"}.
- Sources / resolver surfaces: - BEA release schedule: https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule - BEA core PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy - BEA headline PCE price-index data page: https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index - BEA Personal Income and Outlays, April 2026 release: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-april-2026