Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 86.7%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleMar 14, 23, 7:52 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Israel be a 'full' or 'flawed democracy' according to the Democracy Index in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran become a democracy in 2026?
KalshiWill Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?
Manifold MarketsIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRules
To have a precise definition, it has to be rated at least "flawed democracy", and above "hybrid regime", by Democracy Index.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Israel be a democracy in 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Israel be a democracy in 2030? resolve?
- Will Israel be a democracy in 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Will Israel be a democracy in 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: To have a precise definition, it has to be rated at least "flawed democracy", and above "hybrid regime", by Democracy Index.