Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 55.3%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMay 8, 23, 8:32 PM UTCMay 31, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES when I complete my Ph.D. (measured by successfully defending my thesis) or NO if I have not done so by the close date (5 academic years after my start).
- I appear to be moving at a pace where this seems plausible but research is unpredictable.
- There are also potential reasons why I may try to do a 6th year even if not strictly necessary (funding isn't necessarily guaranteed for a 6th year but can be obtained sometimes).
- Currently though I'd like to graduate in 5 if I can.
- Since my personal decisions can influence this market's outcome significantly, I won't bet on it.
Open markets
Science
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.1pt3%
- September 30-0.3pt0%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $70.2M
- 24h Vol
- $856.5K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202920%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $34.4M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+0.5pt75%
- 2+1.0pt24%
- 3+0.1pt1%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Total Vol
- $474.7K
- 24h Vol
- $2.5K
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-0.6pt70%
- No30%
- Total Vol
- $355K
- 24h Vol
- $2K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+2.0pt40%
- Above 1+3.0pt18%
- Above 24%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $125.4K
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- Will the world pass 2 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial levels before 2050?
- Will a cotton candy lobster be caught in U.S. waters before 2027?
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Will humans colonize Mars before 2050?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- Lowest Great Salt Lake elevation in 2026?
- How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
- AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will I get my math Ph.D. within 5 years of starting??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 55.3% as of September 23, 2026.
- When does Will I get my math Ph.D. within 5 years of starting? resolve?
- Will I get my math Ph.D. within 5 years of starting? is scheduled to resolve on May 31, 2027.
- How is Will I get my math Ph.D. within 5 years of starting? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES when I complete my Ph.D. (measured by successfully defending my thesis) or NO if I have not done so by the close date (5 academic years after my start).