Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 95.4%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleFeb 6, 24, 12:14 AM UTCFeb 13, 99, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Sam Altman Run For President of the USA by 2060?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, who will represent the Democratic Party for President of the USA?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump keep the position of the President of the USA for all of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will run for President of Brazil?
KalshiWill Bernie Sanders run for President in 2028?
KalshiWill Joe Manchin run for president in 2028?
KalshiRules
Resolves NO if I die or decide that I don't want to run.
- Resolves YES if I run for president (has to be in major, trustworthy news source, I can't just say "I'm running for president lol")
- This is not a trick question--I was born in the USA and will be eligible to run once I am 35 years old.
- I think I want to try running but I'm not sure yet.
- I won't bet in this market.
- Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator's IRL friends are aware of this market and can resolve it in the event of the creator's death.
Open markets
PoliticsKALSHINH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Stefany Shaheen+82.9pt100%
- Maura Sullivan-82.9pt0%
- Carleigh Beriont-2.1pt0%
- Total Vol
- $985.7K
- 24h Vol
- $777.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.1pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.4pt3%
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt52.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+3.5pt45.5%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-2.0pt15.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.6M
- 24h Vol
- $689.2K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.3pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.2M
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.9pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will I ever run for president of the USA?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will I ever run for president of the USA resolve?
- Will I ever run for president of the USA is scheduled to resolve on February 13, 2099.
- How is Will I ever run for president of the USA settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves NO if I die or decide that I don't want to run.