Current community forecast
No 70.6%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJun 5, 23, 1:25 PM UTCJan 1, 36, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will we have flying cars commercially available by the year 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill a commercially available quantum computer with over 1 million qubits released before 2035?
Manifold MarketsBy December 31, 2028, will there be a fully operational, commercially available hotel in space?
Manifold MarketsWhen will nuclear fusion be achieved?
KalshiWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiHow many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Science
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $66.7M
- 24h Vol
- $99K
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2030+9.0pt85%
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2029+29.1pt61%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202920%
- Before 202813%
- Before 20275%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
- 24h Vol
- $17.2K
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+4.5pt75.3%
- 221.8%
- 32%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
- before October+63.0pt97%
+3 more outcomes
- How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will fusion power be commercially available by 2035??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 71% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will fusion power be commercially available by 2035? resolve?
- Will fusion power be commercially available by 2035? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2036.