Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029?
Corporate ActionsOne-OffUS Politics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 55.1%
Forecasters
22
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJan 8, 25, 2:44 PM UTCFeb 1, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Fannie Mae officially announce an IPO?
KalshiFreddie Mac 30Y fixed-rate mortgage average below 5.75% in 2026?
KalshiWill any of Petrobras, Banco do Brasil or Caixa Economica Federal be privatized until EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
PolymarketWhich companies will the US take a stake in?
PolymarketHow much will the US acquire Greenland for?
KalshiRules
GSE exit from government conservatorship could enrich speculative investors in their common and preferred equity, including Bill Ackman who has loudly advocated for their release on Twitter.
- Privatization was a putative goal of the first Trump administration, but fairly little progress was made, in part due to large structural difficulties in accomplishing the goal, including the need for enormous amounts of capital to back the GSEs were they to go private.
- Some of those obstacles have lessened since the first Trump administration ended.
- Fannie and Freddie's equity both trade in the mid $4 range at the time this market opened, compared to about $1 at the recent lows during the Biden administration, and $31 that Bill Ackman suggested as a most likely IPO price.
- Resolution will be based on my personal judgement, and I will not trade in this question.
- Generally an event will count as a "YES" if it ends some or all of the existing government conservatorship and creates a clear path for private investors to be able to receive future cashflows resulting from the GSEs' future profits.
Open markets
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.8M
- 24h Vol
- $89.3K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-4.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWill GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes8%
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $20.8K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.25–$2.5T+6.0pt24.8%
- $2.0–$2.25T-0.5pt21.8%
- $1.75–$2.0T18.8%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
- 24h Vol
- $17.4K
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?
- Israeli Legislative Election Winner
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Who will close Warner Bros. acquisition?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap (Middle Brackets)
- Oura IPO Closing Market Cap
- IPOs before 2027?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 55% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029? resolve?
- Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2029.
- How is Will Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac be privatized before February 2029? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: GSE exit from government conservatorship could enrich speculative investors in their common and preferred equity, including Bill Ackman who has loudly advocated for their release on Twitter.