Will Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter beat the S&P 500?
One-OffChessEquitiesCorporate ActionsSportsBusiness & Corporate3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleApr 15, 25, 12:42 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria:
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if before 2030 (in the next ~5 years) Elon Musk:
- Sells Twitter (X)
- The sale price beats what he would've made investing his initial investment into the S&P 500, not including additional (infl. adj.) cash/assets that Elon may have infused into the company during his ownership.
- The market will resolve N/A if Elon does not sell X, and "No" if the sale price does not beat the S&P500.
- ('Sale price' could also be market cap after IPO).
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter beat the S&P 500??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 85% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter beat the S&P 500? resolve?
- Will Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter beat the S&P 500? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will Elon Musk's purchase of Twitter beat the S&P 500? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria: