Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 87.8%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleFeb 20, 26, 2:39 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Elon Musk be assassinated before the end of Trumps presidency?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk be assassinated?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk be assassinated by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk have a Neuralink chip implanted in his own brain by the end of 2029?
FutuurElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Elon Musk is assassinated before January 1, 2030.
- For resolution purposes, assassination is defined as the deliberate, premeditated killing of Musk by another person.
- Resolution will be determined by official confirmation from law enforcement, medical examiners, or credible news sources documenting that Musk's death resulted from an assassination attempt.
- Deaths from natural causes, accidents, or other non-assassination-related circumstances resolve NO.
Open markets
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+2.5pt65%
- Yes-2.5pt35%
- Total Vol
- $404K
- 24h Vol
- $31.8K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 2026+0.1pt5%
- Total Vol
- $578.1K
- 24h Vol
- $16K
POLYMARKETNothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Yes+3.0pt84.2%
- No-3.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $785.6K
- 24h Vol
- $9.4K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $6.9K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 307%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill Trump be impeached and removed from office?
- No86%
- Yes-3.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $670.9K
- 24h Vol
- $4.2K
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- What will Brett Kavanaugh say during his Notre Dame Lecture?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Maduro Prison Time?
- Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027?
- Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026?
- Anthony Fauci charged by December 31?
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Elon Musk be assassinated before 1 January 2030?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Elon Musk be assassinated before 1 January 2030 resolve?
- Will Elon Musk be assassinated before 1 January 2030 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2029.
- How is Will Elon Musk be assassinated before 1 January 2030 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria