Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.6%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleFeb 20, 26, 2:39 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Elon Musk be assassinated before the end of Trumps presidency?
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Elon Musk is assassinated before January 1, 2030.
- For resolution purposes, assassination is defined as the deliberate, premeditated killing of Musk by another person.
- Resolution will be determined by official confirmation from law enforcement, medical examiners, or credible news sources documenting that Musk's death resulted from an assassination attempt.
- Deaths from natural causes, accidents, or other non-assassination-related circumstances resolve NO.
