Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 98.3%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleSep 17, 24, 2:38 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Elon Musk be assassinated before the end of Trumps presidency?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk be assassinated before 1 January 2030
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk be assassinated?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $354.3K
- 24h Vol
- $354.2K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+4.0pt50%
- 65-89+27.0pt47.1%
- 90-114-2.4pt2.9%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA+1.0pt78.4%
- Apple+0.6pt13.7%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 more outcomes
KALSHIWashington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 80,000 jobs98%
- Above 81,000 jobs95%
- Above 82,000 jobs+3.0pt92%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-199-1.0pt18.2%
- 200-219-1.0pt18.2%
- 160-179+1.0pt14.1%
+23 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.3pt98%
- Apple-0.2pt2%
- Alphabet0%
+6 more outcomes
- Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- Illinois nuclear electricity generation in 2026
- 3rd Largest Company end of September?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
- Taco Bell same-store sales growth in Q3
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Elon Musk be assassinated by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Elon Musk be assassinated by the end of 2030? resolve?
- Will Elon Musk be assassinated by the end of 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.