KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 730,000 6%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
67 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$9.6K
Liquidity
$7.3K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Aug 19, 26, 3:00 AMNov 16, 26, 2:59 PM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
0%
Rules
If the California FAIR Plan reports total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 are the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:California FAIR Plan Association
- The Underlying is the point-in-time total policies in force (PIF) reported by the California FAIR Plan Association as of September 30, 2026, including residential, commercial, and Businessowner’s Program policies.
- This is a policy inventory, not policies written during the year or new business.
- The market remains open past September 30 because the September 30 policy count is published later, typically in the following quarterly data release.
- Resolution uses the first official September 30, 2026 figure; subsequent revisions do not affect resolution.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026?
- Kalshi prices Above 730,000 at 6% as of August 25, 2026.
- When does California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 resolve?
- California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 is scheduled to resolve on November 16, 2026.
- How is California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the California FAIR Plan reports total FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026 are the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
