Will EHarding's market "Will any Democratic state legalize school shootings by the end of 2032?" resolve accurately?
One-OffPoliticsSociety & Culture5yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 70%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJun 2, 22, 1:47 PM UTCDec 31, 31, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
https://manifold.markets/EnopoletusHarding/will-any-democratic-state-legalize
- This resolves YES if by my best judgement the linked market resolution matches reality when it resolves, eg. it resolves YES and this has happened, or it resolves NO and this has not happened.
- If the mechanism in the other market which could cause it to resolve PROB occurs, and I believe that this makes sense, I will resolve this YES as long as the resolution is within ten percentage points of what I think the correct result is after calculating it (margin of error to account for the possibility of differing data sources).
- If the linked market resolves N/A, I will either resolve this N/A (if I think there was a valid reason for that market to be N/A) or I will resolve this NO (if I think it's an attempt to get out of resolving it accurately or no good reason is posted.)
- If the linked market does not resolve by the end of 2034, I will resolve this NO.
- If the linked market's description is substantially changed so that the basic structure of the question is lost, I will resolve this NO.
