Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027?
US PoliticsOne-OffAITech2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 62.9%
Forecasters
5
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 21 hours ago
StaleAug 18, 26, 3:44 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if: Between market creation and 11:59 PM ET December 31, 2026, the US Commerce Department (BIS) imposes a license requirement on the export, reexport, or in-country transfer of one or more specific AI models or model weights developed by a company other than Anthropic, and this becomes publicly known.
- Qualifying instruments: an "is-informed" letter, a BIS rule or order, or an Entity List/end-use control that has the effect of requiring a license for a named US or foreign company's frontier model or weights.
- Must target models or weights.
- Controls on chips, compute, cloud/IaaS access, semiconductor tooling, or datacenter equipment do NOT count, no matter how AI-relevant.
- Must name a company other than Anthropic.
- Additional actions against Anthropic, or modifications/exemptions to the existing Anthropic IIL, do not count.
