What are the current odds for Will China be the leading producer of green hydrogen in 2030??

Manifold Markets prices No at 55.3% as of October 20, 2026.

Will China be the leading producer of green hydrogen in 2030?

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Current community forecast

No 55.3%

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binary

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Forecast

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Updated 10 hours ago

Stale

Jan 2, 25, 1:46 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC

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With the incoming Trump presidency, US efforts to produce green hydrogen will likely decrease (while blue hydrogen production may increase).

At the same time, new materials have been developed in China that can boost green hydrogen production efficiency and that appear ready for implementation:
https://www.thebrighterside.news/post/revolutionary-super-steel-produces-green-hydrogen-directly-from-seawater/
This market resolves YES if by 2030, China is the leading producer of green hydrogen (i.e. produces more green hydrogen by total mass than any other country) and NO otherwise.
https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/hydrogen/chart-which-countries-are-leading-the-green-hydrogen-race
https://www.iea.org/reports/global-hydrogen-review-2024/hydrogen-production