Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 71.9%
Forecasters
31
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleSep 10, 25, 9:15 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What is true about Erika Kirk (Charlie Kirk’s widow) after the funeral ceremony.
Manifold MarketsWill Charlie Kirk's killer receive the death penalty?
Manifold MarketsWhich method(s) will the police use to find Charlie Kirk's shooter?
Manifold MarketsWill Matthew McConaughey run for office before 2028?
KalshiRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if Erika Kirk runs for any political office before 2030.
- Otherwise, resolves NO.
Open markets
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $808.4K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $342.3K
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.2%
- Marco Rubio20.2%
- Ron DeSantis+0.1pt4.8%
+35 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $63.6M
- 24h Vol
- $338.6K
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Charlie Kirk's widow run for office before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 72% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Charlie Kirk's widow run for office before 2030? resolve?
- Will Charlie Kirk's widow run for office before 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Will Charlie Kirk's widow run for office before 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if Erika Kirk runs for any political office before 2030.