Will California repeal Prop. 13 by 2030? (2/3's majority requirement)
InflationOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 68.5%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleJul 31, 23, 5:42 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Prop. 13 was a 1978 California ballot proposition which, among other things, passed a constitutional amendment that capped property taxes on all property at 1% of their purchase price, with a maximum annual inflation adjustment of 2%, regardless of market price.
- This has led to property taxes varying drastically between neighboring houses; houses which have been held for the longest have the lowest property taxes.
- It also required all new taxes to pass the legislature with 2/3's majority.
- While in the past there have been attempts to pull back some parts of Prop. 13, such as a US supreme court case, and many ballot measures, none have succeeded.
- However, a growing contingent of the YIMBY movement sees Prop. 13 as entrenching NIMBY and SFH interests.
- Will Prop. 13's 2/3's majority requirement be repealed by 2030?
