Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029??

Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of October 20, 2026.

When does Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029? resolve?

Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029? is scheduled to resolve on January 31, 2029.

How is Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: To summarize:

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POLYMARKET

Fed Decision in October?

• No change+1.0pt86%
• 25 bps increase-1.0pt14%
• 25 bps decrease0%

+2 more outcomes

Total Vol

$51.2M

24h Vol

$1.5M

KALSHI

CPI in October

• Above -0.1%98.5%
• Above 0.0%-1.0pt93%
• Above 0.1%-3.0pt83%

KALSHI

CPI YoY in November

• Above 3.3%97.5%
• Above 3.0%98.5%
• Above 3.1%98.5%

POLYMARKET

How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?

• 2 (50 bps)+1.0pt69%
• 1 (25 bps)21%
• 3 (75 bps)-1.1pt9%

+3 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

• Hike–Pause–Hike+0.5pt68%
• Hike–Pause–Pause19%
• Hike–Hike–Hike-3.0pt9%

+6 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

• Yes80.2%
• No19.8%

Total Vol

$880.7K

24h Vol

$7.3K

• October Inflation China - Annual
• CPI in December
• Core CPI in October
• Core CPI in November
• CPI YoY in December
• U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
• Core CPI YoY in December
• Japan Core CPI YoY in 2026
• US headline CPI inflation in December 2027
• Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
• PPI YoY - October 2026
• Core CPI YoY in November