Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?
One-OffAI16yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleAug 20, 23, 10:09 PM UTCJan 2, 43, 5:59 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Explosive growth bet
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PolymarketRules
Details in this blog post.
- Barnett wins if:
- By January 1, 2043, real gross world product exceeds 130% of its previous yearly peak value for any single year
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.7pt68.6%
- ChatGPT+2.9pt15.2%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.7M
- 24h Vol
- $144.2K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+10.0pt75%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+36.2pt72.6%
- September 22-17.6pt10.5%
- No release by September 30-8.4pt4.2%
+13 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.2M
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $184.4K
- 24h Vol
- $29K
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 72% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043? resolve?
- Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2043.
- How is Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Details in this blog post.