Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 99.1%
Forecasters
42
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Nov 29, 22, 7:19 AM UTCJan 21, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?
Manifold MarketsWill Stephen Hsu's kids become friends with Bryan Caplan's kids?
Manifold MarketsWill Bryan Caplan lose any of his public bets by 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS meets its climate goals?
KalshiIndia meets its 2030 climate goals?
KalshiEU meets its 2030 climate goals?
KalshiRules
https://www.econlib.org/archives/2014/06/bauman_climate_1.html
- Arguing for YES is Bryan's uncanny track record -- he's never lost a public bet ever!
- Arguing for NO is that global temperatures have gone up a lot in the 8 years since the bet was shaken on.
- You can look at the graph and see that Bryan Caplan was wrong.
- Related market: https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/will-bryan-caplan-lose-any-of-his-p
- Close date updated to 2024-05-15 3:59 pm
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman? resolve?
- Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman? is scheduled to resolve on January 21, 2029.
- How is Will Bryan Caplan win his climate bet with Yoram Bauman? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://www.econlib.org/archives/2014/06/bauman_climate_1.html