Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?
InflationOne-OffCorporate ActionsBusiness & CorporateTechAI4yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 56.8%
Forecasters
227
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleFeb 2, 24, 2:06 PM UTCJan 2, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
To prevent private market shenanigans it will have to be 2 $1bn+ valuation rounds in series, or an acquisition, IPO or direct listing at $1bn+.
- For public markets valuations I will take the valuation at the close of the trading day.
- EDIT - 2025/08/28
- The $1bn amount will be adjusted for inflation using CPI index for year end 2023 as the base year.
- My discretion will be used to adjudicate how contractor use applies to the “one person” criteria.
- I will not bet in this market.
