What are the current odds for Will Bavaria be an independent nation by 2050??

Manifold Markets prices No at 91.1% as of October 27, 2026.

When does Will Bavaria be an independent nation by 2050? resolve?

Will Bavaria be an independent nation by 2050? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2050.

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 91.1%

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binary

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Forecast

Market data

Updated 8 hours ago

Stale

Oct 4, 23, 8:36 AM UTCJan 1, 50, 10:59 PM UTC

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Ever since its incorporation into the German Empire in 1871, calls for a Bavarian independent state have been loud and numerous.

As one of Germany's most populous and richest states with a strong regional identity, Bavarian separatists argue that the German government infringes on its sovereign rights and worsens quality of life by taking resources away from Bavaria through financial redistribution, for example.
In some ways, it's reminiscent of other separatist movements such as those of Scotland or Catalonia.
[image]However, according to a 2017 YouGov poll, only 32% of Bavarians would support independence, and the only party in favour of it (Bavaria Party) does not currently have enough votes to enter parliament.