Will at least one of the pardoned January 6 rioters be involved in a domestic terrorism plot or incident before 2029?
US PoliticsOne-OffCrime & Justice2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 66.1%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleJan 22, 25, 6:29 PM UTCJan 30, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Background On January 6, 2021, thousands of individuals participated in a riot at the U.S. Capitol.
- Some participants were later pardoned.
- Several of these individuals had leadership roles in extremist groups like the Oath Keepers and Proud Boys, and some had demonstrated premeditated violent intentions.
- For example, Guy Wesley Reffitt had planned violent actions against elected officials and threatened his own family members to prevent them from reporting him.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if at least one person who received a pardon for their involvement in the January 6 Capitol riot is:
- Arrested and charged with domestic terrorism-related offenses, OR
