Current community forecast
No 99%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleMar 12, 24, 6:34 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will NASA's mission Artemis III find water and use it on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsArtemis III flown with a crewed landing? x Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWill there still be an Apollo moonwalker alive on the day the Artemis III crew walks on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWill Artemis III be flown with a crewed landing?
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KalshiBy 2100, will there be scientific consensus supporting the existence of past or present life on Mars?
Manifold MarketsRules
NASA's FY2025 budget request schedules the launch of Artemis III for September 2026.
- Will it launch before 2027?
- Resolves YES if a crewed launch in the Artemis program, as part of a mission named Artemis III and intended to deliver humans to the surface of the moon, lifts off the pad before 2027, local time at the launch site.
- For the purposes of this market, the mission must be named Artemis III and have the same primary goal that the Artemis III mission has at time of writing - to deliver humans to the lunar surface.
- Note that Artemis III may involve many launches - this market resolves on the launch of the one carrying humans.
