Current community forecast
No 99%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMar 12, 24, 6:34 AM UTCJan 2, 27, 12:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will NASA's mission Artemis III find water and use it on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWill there still be an Apollo moonwalker alive on the day the Artemis III crew walks on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWill Artemis III be flown with a crewed landing?
Manifold MarketsNASA's mission Artemis 3 to land the first woman and the next man on the Moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Artificial wombs for premature babies be tested in humans by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRules
NASA's FY2025 budget request schedules the launch of Artemis III for September 2026.
- Will it launch before 2027?
- Resolves YES if a crewed launch in the Artemis program, as part of a mission named Artemis III and intended to deliver humans to the surface of the moon, lifts off the pad before 2027, local time at the launch site.
- For the purposes of this market, the mission must be named Artemis III and have the same primary goal that the Artemis III mission has at time of writing - to deliver humans to the lunar surface.
- Note that Artemis III may involve many launches - this market resolves on the launch of the one carrying humans.
Open markets
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Artemis III launch (with humans, destination moon) before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 99% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Artemis III launch (with humans, destination moon) before 2027? resolve?
- Will Artemis III launch (with humans, destination moon) before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2027.
- How is Will Artemis III launch (with humans, destination moon) before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: NASA's FY2025 budget request schedules the launch of Artemis III for September 2026.