Current community forecast
No 97.9%
Forecasters
35
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleSep 13, 22, 9:02 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
NASA's mission Artemis 3 to land the first woman and the next man on the Moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill Artemis III launch (with humans, destination moon) before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Illinois regulate data center energy and water use?
KalshiWill Tennessee regulate data center water use?
KalshiWill there still be an Apollo moonwalker alive on the day the Artemis III crew walks on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWill Artemis III be flown with a crewed landing?
Manifold MarketsRules
NASA's Artemis lunar exploration program has several goals to achieve while the astronauts are on the Moon during the Artemis 3 mission.
- One of them is to find and use water, needed for long-term explorations.
- Scientists have predicted in the 1960s that there would be water on the Moon's poles, probably as ice.
- India's first lunar mission, in 2008, helped confirm that there is indeed water on the moon, like ice.
- The challenge now is to find this water and make it usable, as water is a heavy thing to bring on space missions, and having it on-site would make missions easier and cheaper.
- If, during the Artemis 3 mission, astronauts manage to find and to use lunar water this question will be resolved as "yes".
Open markets
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will NASA's mission Artemis III find water and use it on the Moon??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will NASA's mission Artemis III find water and use it on the Moon? resolve?
- Will NASA's mission Artemis III find water and use it on the Moon? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will NASA's mission Artemis III find water and use it on the Moon? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: NASA's Artemis lunar exploration program has several goals to achieve while the astronauts are on the Moon during the Artemis 3 mission.