Current community forecast
No 97.9%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleOct 28, 23, 6:09 AM UTCJan 1, 40, 10:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Artemis III flown with a crewed landing? x Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWill Artemis 3 be a crewed moon landing?
Manifold MarketsWill the first successful Artemis crewed lunar landing be done using a Blue Origin lander?
Manifold MarketsHuman moon landing in 2026?
PolymarketNASA's mission Artemis 3 to land the first woman and the next man on the Moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketRules
In August 2023, due to delays in the development of Starship, NASA officials expressed an openness to flying Artemis 3 without a crewed landing.
- In this case, the mission may become a crewed visit to the Lunar Gateway.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3
- Resolves YES if Artemis III is flown and a lunar landing is planned to be attempted as part of the mission
- Resolves NO if Artemis III is flown and a lunar landing is not planned to be attempted as part of the mission
- Resolves N/A if Artemis III is not flown before 2040
Open markets
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Artemis III be flown with a crewed landing??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Artemis III be flown with a crewed landing? resolve?
- Will Artemis III be flown with a crewed landing? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2040.
- How is Will Artemis III be flown with a crewed landing? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: In August 2023, due to delays in the development of Starship, NASA officials expressed an openness to flying Artemis 3 without a crewed landing.