Will Apple announce a foldable phone that is not branded as an iPhone by the end of 2026?
US PoliticsTechOne-Off3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.8%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 25, 26, 10:19 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Apple announces a foldable, pocketable, SIM/eSIM-enabled device that is explicitly positioned as a primary mobile phone and is not branded under the iPhone name, regardless of whether it is intended to replace the iPhone in practice.
- The announcement must be confirmed by:
- an official Apple press release or statement (e.g., Apple Newsroom or Investor Relations), or
- reporting by a highly credible financial news outlet (Bloomberg, Reuters, or Associated Press) confirming that such a product has been announced.
- This market resolves NO if any of the following occur:
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Apple announce a foldable phone that is not branded as an iPhone by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Apple announce a foldable phone that is not branded as an iPhone by the end of 2026? resolve?
- Will Apple announce a foldable phone that is not branded as an iPhone by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Apple announce a foldable phone that is not branded as an iPhone by the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria