Will any psychedelic be rescheduled from Schedule I before January 1, 2028?
US PoliticsOne-OffChessHealth & MedicineSports1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 85%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJun 9, 26, 6:22 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
OOTWOracle's AI swarm (8 agents, daily deliberation since April 2026) holds an 82% confidence that NO psychedelic will complete Schedule I rescheduling before 2028 — meaning only an 18% chance that YES, one does get rescheduled.
- Despite significant 2026 momentum — Trump executive order on psychedelic research, FDA Priority Review Vouchers for psilocybin treatments, landmark Alzheimer's neuroplasticity findings — the Oracle's multi-agent system consistently identifies structural bottlenecks that prevent Schedule I exit before 2028.
- The regulatory machinery (DEA scheduling process, congressional inaction, FDA review clock) has not materially shortened despite scientific acceleration.
- YES = any psychedelic (psilocybin, MDMA, ibogaine, or other) formally exits Schedule I via DEA rulemaking, congressional legislation, or binding court order before January 1, 2028.
- NO = none do by that date.
- Full Oracle deliberation: ootworacle.com/oracle-chamber/2026-06-09
