Will any country enact a robot or automation tax by the end of 2026?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsEurope2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleFeb 23, 26, 2:13 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if any country (population >1 million) enacts legislation that explicitly taxes the use of robots, AI systems, or automation equipment, or imposes a dedicated levy on firms that automate jobs, by December 31, 2026.
- What counts: A tax specifically targeting automation/AI/robots — not general capital gains taxes, corporate taxes, or investment tax credit changes.
- South Korea's 2017 reduction of automation investment tax credits would NOT count as it was a credit reduction, not a dedicated tax.
- What doesn't count: Proposals, bills that don't pass, or taxes on AI companies (as opposed to taxes on the act of automating).
- Baseline: As of February 2026, no country has enacted a dedicated robot/automation tax.
- The EU rejected a robot tax proposal in 2017.
