Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028??

Manifold Markets prices No at 69.2% as of October 26, 2026.

When does Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028? resolve?

Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028? is scheduled to resolve on April 1, 2028.

How is Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Going by the NYT's list, or one of comparable prestigiousness if the NYT's goes away.

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POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+22.0pt95%
• December 15,+22.0pt94%
• November 30,+38.5pt90%

+9 more outcomes

Total Vol

$5.8M

24h Vol

$364K

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+4.0pt96.5%
• Before Mar 1, 2027+6.0pt95%
• Before Jan 1, 2027+20.0pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+4.0pt31.1%
• $2.0–$2.25T+2.7pt23.3%
• $1.5–$1.75T-1.8pt16.5%

+7 more outcomes

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude-2.1pt56.4%
• Gemini-1.4pt32.8%
• ChatGPT-0.6pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google-4.7pt89.5%
• Anthropic-0.2pt8.4%
• Meta+0.1pt1.1%

+18 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?

• December 31+4.2pt98%
• October 30+15.0pt45%
• October 31+15.7pt45%

+17 more outcomes

• What will Anthropic's public ticker be?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• In which month will Anthropic IPO?
• What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
• Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on?
• Next GPT Terra (5.7+) released on?
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• Next OpenAI GPT Terra (5.7+) released by which date?
• What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?