[Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
AIOne-OffManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 67.5%
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18
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 4 minutes ago
Nov 7, 23, 12:06 AM UTCFeb 2, 50, 8:31 PM UTC
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By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/8404/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
- This question will resolve positively if, in any year between 2021 to 2049 (inclusive), 25% or more of the books that top that year's New York Times' Best Sellers list in the category of adult fiction were written by AI.
- For example, the NYT top Best Sellers of 2020 are listed here.
- If the NYT Best Sellers list is no longer available until 2050 or no longer ranks adult fiction books, Metaculus Admins may select a similar ranking of bestselling fiction, or resolve ambiguously at their discretion.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for [Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 68% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does [Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI? resolve?
- [Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI? is scheduled to resolve on February 2, 2050.
- How is [Metaculus] By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: By 2050, will at least 25% of #1 NYT Best Selling Fiction be primarily written by AI?