Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?
AIOne-Off2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 95.7%
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57
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Forecast
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Updated 6 hours ago
StaleAug 31, 23, 7:40 PM UTCJan 1, 29, 6:59 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
The traditionally recognized Big Five publishers are: Penguin Random House
- HarperCollins
- Simon & Schuster
- The novel must be purported to be written by a human, but turn out to have been mostly* written by AI.
- What counts as "mostly" written by AI? As noted in the comments, it is unlikely that we would ever know exactly what percentage of the words in the final draft originated with the human author vs the AI, so there is a very high likelihood of considerable ambiguity.
- I will use my best judgement, taking into account opinions expressed in the comments, to resolve this fairly.
Open markets
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+3 more outcomes
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- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
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- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
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- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
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- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
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- 1500+-3.5pt23%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028? resolve?
- Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2029.
- How is Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The traditionally recognized Big Five publishers are: Penguin Random House