What are the current odds for Before 2040, will an entirely AI-generated film earn a 5/10 or better on IMDB??

Manifold Markets prices No at 59.6% as of October 25, 2026.

Before 2040, will an entirely AI-generated film earn a 5/10 or better on IMDB?

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

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Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 11:51 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4

Current community forecast

No 59.6%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 12 hours ago

Stale

Sep 21, 25, 1:21 AM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

AI must be entirely responsible for writing the script, coming up with the plot, writing the dialogue, and creating the audio for the film.

There cannot be any human intervention more substantial than prompting: "make me a successful film".
In order to count, the film must reach 5/10 rating with at least 1000 total ratings.
If there is good reason to believe the ratings are substantially manipulated it will not resolve yes.
The film must be at least 90 minutes long.