Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 2:32 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 79.5%
Forecasters
14
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated yesterday
StaleOct 24, 25, 2:46 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
YES resolves if:
- A credible source (news report, official filing, or photographic evidence) confirms demolition of another entire structural section of the White House beyond the East Wing.
- “Major section” means a complete wing (e.g., West Wing), a full floor, or another comparably large and integral structure of the White House complex.
- NO resolves if:
- No further major demolition beyond the East Wing occurs by December 31, 2026.
- Any changes limited to the East Wing site (already demolished), cosmetic renovations, interior remodels, or partial façade adjustments do not count.