Current community forecast
Competing frontier lab shows a global workspace on one of their own closed models using similar experimental methods 69.6%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
10
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJul 11, 26, 10:59 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- Each option in this independent multiple-choice market will resolve to YES, NO, or N/A based on whether the specific criteria are met by December 31, 2030, at 11:59 UTC.
- “Well-known researcher” means an academic or industrial research scientist with a track record of active publication in their field lasting at least three years who is well-respected in their community OR has an H-index of at least 15.
- This is a broad subjective definition but is meant to exclude eg. student projects, independent lone wolves who only publish to arXiv, etv.
- This researcher must not be a collaborator of the original paper authors.
- “Global workspace” means representations describable using J-lens-like techniques OR representations that act functionally similar to the representations described by Anthropic that carry broad domain-general applicability