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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Anthropic’s “global workspace” paper (J-space) replicate by EOY2030? [prop bets; add your own]
Who will be the first Manifold User to reach 10 million mana net worth (add your own)
Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)
What's true about pro-em reports heard by Robin Hanson? (add your own options)
Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
Will a law restricting sports trades on prediction markets be enacted in 2026?
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