Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)
AI4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Other 63.3%Leader of 23 outcomes
Forecasters
65
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMay 14, 24, 2:57 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
To qualify, a person must be well known before making claims about AI personhood (e.g. Blake Lemoine doesn't count).
- The figure must be prominent in the English-speaking world (i.e. all the criteria are English specific).
- The figure must also:
- Have a Wikipedia page
- Have at least 5 news articles centrally mentioning the person from different large media platforms such as the NYT, BBC, Fox News, etc. from before they made claims about AI personhood
- Have a (verified) social media account with 100k+ followers, a TED talk, a prominent role in a film, or a book
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- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
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- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
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- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
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- 1500+-3.5pt23%
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)?
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 63% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own) resolve?
- Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own) is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own) settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: To qualify, a person must be well known before making claims about AI personhood (e.g. Blake Lemoine doesn't count).