Who will be the first public figure to confidently claim that artificial intelligences are people? (add your own)
AI4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Other 54.6%Leader of 23 outcomes
Other 54.6%Forecasters
65
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
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Updated 13 hours ago
StaleMay 14, 24, 2:57 AM UTCJan 1, 31, 7:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
To qualify, a person must be well known before making claims about AI personhood (e.g. Blake Lemoine doesn't count).
- The figure must be prominent in the English-speaking world (i.e. all the criteria are English specific).
- The figure must also:
- Have a Wikipedia page
- Have at least 5 news articles centrally mentioning the person from different large media platforms such as the NYT, BBC, Fox News, etc. from before they made claims about AI personhood
- Have a (verified) social media account with 100k+ followers, a TED talk, a prominent role in a film, or a book